Miami Open 2024 Final: Elena Rybakina vs Danielle Collins Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction
Miami Masters Final-Elena Rybakina will seek to banish demons from 12 months ago and look to deprive Danielle Collins an emotional home win. Elena Rybakina and Danielle Collins are set to compete in the Miami Open 2024 final, with both seeking the number 3 spot in Miami. No.4 seed Rybaki will be aiming to secure her third WTA Title for the season and erase memories of her straight sets defeat in the 2023 Miami Final. Meanwhile, unseeded Danielle Collins is aiming to win her home state’s WTA 1000 in her final Miami appearance. Rybakyina has been successful in her five-match win streak in Miami, spending 11 hours and 36 minutes on the court, which is 213 minutes less than her opponent. Despite some dips in her game, Rybaka's performance has been noted as a significant test.
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Mar 28, 2024; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Danielle Collins (USA) celebrates after match point against Ekaterina Alexandrova (not pictured) on day eleven of the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
From 128, we are down to two, with both players seeking the number 3 in Miami! No.4 seed Elena Rybakina will look to secure her third WTA Title for the season and banish memories of her straight sets defeat in the 2023 Miami Final (l.to Petra Kvitova 7-6, 6-2). Meanwhile, the unseeded Danielle Collins will look to ride a wave of home support in her bid to win just her third WTA singles title; the first in her home state’s WTA 1000 in her final Miami appearance.
The St. Petersburg, Florida-born tennis player will look to maintain her impeccable numbers for one more match, go all guns blazing, and register a fairytale win. It is easier said than done as the 24-year-old Elena Rybakina will be the American’s first Top 10 opponent in ‘The Sunshine State.’ If the 2022 Wimbledon champion can overcome the pain barrier, she will be a stern test based on her route to the final, the head-to-head, and the ranking.
After missing the Indian Wells tournament, Elena Rybakina has put together a five-match win streak in Miami. She has beaten Clara Tauson (3-6, 7-5, 6-4), Taylor Townsend (6-3, 6-7 {3-7}, 6-4), Madison Keys (6-3, 7-5), Maria Sakkari (7-5, 6-7 {4-7}, 6-4) and Victoria Azarenka (6-4, 0-6, 7-6 {7-2}). These 14 sets have seen her spend 11 hours and 36 minutes on the court, which is 213 minutes less than her opponent.
Elena Rybakina has landed 48 aces, but this has not resulted in her running through her matches. The Kazakh’s 34% break point conversion rate (19/55) and 57% break points saved (20/35) have seen her spend more time on court. She has had some dips in her game with four instances standing out:-
• None Two match points in the second set on Sakkari’s serve at 4-5 15-40, failing to convert and losing the set in the tie-break.
• None Two more match points in the penultimate game of the final set on Sakkari’s serve.
• None Securing only 5 points in set 2 of the semifinal and losing 16 consecutive points (from 0-1 30-30 to 0-5 0-30), from which 8 were on her serve.
• None Failure to hold while serving for the match at 5-4 in the decider.
While the Kazakh player has managed to win, it is because she has received chances at do-overs. This may not be the case on Saturday, as Danielle Collins has been rather clinical and remained fresh.
The 30-year-old Collins has already played an extra match, having started her campaign in the first round. She needed three sets to get past Bernarda Pera (6-3, 1-6, 1-6) in round 1, but has put together 5 straight sets victories en route to the title clash.
It is important to note that other results kept the top 10 players away from Danielle Collins in the tournament. The lack of a top 10 win in Miami may not bother the American as she will be confident after her semifinal victory over the player who eliminated Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula.
A close glance at the 12 consecutive sets won shows that Danielle Collins has had quite a dominant run at Miami. She has secured 26/59 breaks of serve (41.66%) while conceding just 5/25 break points. This statistic could be under threat against the WTA’s ace leader for 2024.
Elena Rybakina and Danielle Collins have faced each other 4 times, with all matches coming on outdoor hard courts. The Kazakh player has a 3-1 lead over the American and will look to make it four in a row.
The two players have had very tight contests, with Rybakina having the upper hand. Barring the 4-6 opening set at Abu Dhabi, every other set the American has won has required her to clinch a seventh game. That would position the 24-year-old as the favorite, but all the previous matches have come at earlier rounds.
Danielle Collins has a better record when they’ve played deep in tournaments. Also, she leads 1-0 in their meeting on American soil.
Prediction: Danielle Collins to win in three sets in Miami
Elena Rybakina has made up for the misses by creating more chances to break back (she has also secured a few breaks or a set lead to give herself that insurance). She can also put behind certain setbacks and play lights out when her back is against the wall as seen with her love hold at 5-6 in the decider against Azarenka (this, after she failed to close out the match in her previous game). Moreover, her ability to win when not playing her best is a good sign that she can dig deep when the going gets tough.
Based on the duo’s head-to-head numbers, the going gets tough quite often and Elena Rybakina has been battle-hardened this week; Collins has not encountered that yet, apart from her opening match where she lost the first set and faced 12 break points (saving 10 of them).
Despite all this, Danielle Collins should be the favorite as her freshness, combined with her opponent’s words from just days ago, can paint a picture of what may happen on Saturday. Six more sets after the interview with 5 hours and 21 minutes of court time will have drained the 24-year-old even more.
Elena Rybakina’s time on court can catch up with her and free points may not be that easy. In their previous match last month, the 24-year-old managed just 3 aces. She has not been clinical in breaking serve and Danielle Collins may not give her too many (or any) do-overs. The American player’s break point conversion also does not make that a clincher, but the chances generated may see her really test the Rybakina serve. Home support can tilt the scales in favor of the world.no 53 even further. First strike tennis will be present with the 30-year-old edging it in front of what could be a partisan crowd due to the reserves she has left.
The match will not be straightforward, unless one of the two has an off-day. Expect yet another three-setter between these two players on Saturday with an entire stadium rallying behind Danielle Collins.